The breakdown of the Middle Eastern peace process has increased the anti-western sentiment in the Middle East, and with war brewing on the Korean Peninsula, the number of US military forces in the Persian Gulf are reduced to cope with this new threat. Only a single aircraft carrier remains to enforce the Iraqi no-fly zone.
The moderate president of Iran is assassinated and ultra-conservative clerics seize power and quickly denounce American presence in the region. Soon, under the cover of a major military exercise, Iran suddenly moves thousands of troops onto several disputed Gulf islands.
And when a US flagged tanker is sunk in the Strait of Hormuz, and many more oil tankers are damaged by mines, the world’s oil markets are in turmoil. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to western shipping.
Your carrier strike group represents the majority of airborne striking power available to CENTCOM should air strikes against Iran